Inflation OMG!

I'm sure others are seeing it as well but I wanted to share that I can see costs are rising for many things. The news I read says backlog in shipping is the culprit. JPOW says the impact is transitory. I hope so cuz I got family on fixed incomes and they can not take these increased costs for much longer. Inflation needs to stop and go back or rates need to rise. Stock market is too risky at these levels for retirees. Too many saved way too little long ago.

Any way I was wondering what it was like in other places. Anyone else see inflation?

you no say where from you chief here in South Africa it is,, supply of many is low, when store have what family needed they say too many want. Must pay more!!!!1

What is JPOW?

JPOW = US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

I've noticed some bigger pay for jobs. McDonalds has a sign by my house offering $14.50 to start.

HA! Yeah I guess that was kinda rude of me. From the USA.

Gas station up the block is offering $18.25.

Supply chain disruption in semiconductors, shipping, etc should be transitory. The July numbers were high, but moving in the right direction:

 Seasonally adjusted changes from preceding month
                                                                           Un-
                                                                        adjusted
                                                                         12-mos.
                               Jan.  Feb.  Mar.  Apr.  May   June  July   ended
                               2021  2021  2021  2021  2021  2021  2021   July
                                                                          2021
 
  All items..................    .3    .4    .6    .8    .6    .9    .5      5.4
   Food......................    .1    .2    .1    .4    .4    .8    .7      3.4
    Food at home.............   -.1    .3    .1    .4    .4    .8    .7      2.6
    Food away from home (1)..    .3    .1    .1    .3    .6    .7    .8      4.6
   Energy....................   3.5   3.9   5.0   -.1    .0   1.5   1.6     23.8
    Energy commodities.......   7.3   6.6   8.9  -1.4   -.6   2.6   2.3     41.2
     Gasoline (all types)....   7.4   6.4   9.1  -1.4   -.7   2.5   2.4     41.8
     Fuel oil (1)............   5.4   9.9   3.2  -3.2   2.1   2.9    .6     39.1
    Energy services..........   -.3    .9    .6   1.5    .7    .2    .8      7.2
     Electricity.............   -.2    .7    .0   1.2    .3   -.3    .4      4.0
     Utility (piped) gas
        service..............   -.4   1.6   2.5   2.4   1.7   1.7   2.2     19.0
   All items less food and
      energy.................    .0    .1    .3    .9    .7    .9    .3      4.3
    Commodities less food and
       energy commodities....    .1   -.2    .1   2.0   1.8   2.2    .5      8.5
     New vehicles............   -.5    .0    .0    .5   1.6   2.0   1.7      6.4
     Used cars and trucks....   -.9   -.9    .5  10.0   7.3  10.5    .2     41.7
     Apparel.................   2.2   -.7   -.3    .3   1.2    .7    .0      4.2
     Medical care
        commodities (1)......   -.1   -.7    .1    .6    .0   -.4    .2     -2.1
    Services less energy
       services..............    .0    .2    .4    .5    .4    .4    .3      2.9
     Shelter.................    .1    .2    .3    .4    .3    .5    .4      2.8
     Transportation services    -.3   -.1   1.8   2.9   1.5   1.5  -1.1      6.4
     Medical care services...    .5    .5    .1    .0   -.1    .0    .3       .8
 

Next reports are out September 14. I will be looking close at the shelter component. Home prices are skyrocketing while the eviction moratorium is ending. Rent is a sticky price item. Higher housing costs could very quickly turn into demand for higher wages. 

I have complete faith in Chair Powell to execute his mandate and control inflation effectively. Shipping problems will be transitory. Labor problems are likely to get worse in Q4 on rising delta covid but I see the pandemic under control sooner than later That should broadly support risk asset pricing regardless what happens with inflation.

If stocks aren't an option, consider Treasury TIPS.