The Week Ahead: A calmer footing to start a data light week
Posted: 2017-05-22 12:27:00Eurozone markets are mixed heading into the New York morning with no US data on the calendar today:
In fact there is no meaningful data of note until Wednesday when we get a look at the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting.
Beyond that we'll have to wait for Friday's durable goods data and the second look at GDP for any potential macro event driven plays.
In the interim it will be all about the flow...
Order Flow
USD/CHF near term is negative but over-stretched on the charts we look at. USD/CHF has reached .9698, below the 78.6% retracement, and we suspect that this zone may hold the initial test of 9700. Very near term the market is over-stretched and we note the 13 count on the 240 chart and would allow for a corrective rebound to the .9795/.9840 region, where it is likely to again fail. Below .9720 does however introduce potential for .9550/43 (the 200 week ma).
Many feel the backdrop for commodity currencies remains bearish given the trending bias for the EUR/commodity FX crosses. Still, while the ST range for NZD/USD persists, we are monitoring resistance at .6970 for signs of a deeper bounce. We are at that level here and now.
On the EUR/USD there is not much resistance until the 1.1320 level.